Global changes in the spatial extents of precipitation extremes

Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model Simulations

Temperature and precipitation extremes and their potential future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of global coupled climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) diagnostic exercise for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Climate extremes are expressed in terms of 20-yr return values of annual extremes of near-surface temperature and 24-h precipitatio...

Global changes in seasonal means and extremes of precipitation from daily climate model data

[1] We investigate simulated changes of seasonal precipitation maxima and means in a future, warmer climate. We use data from the ESSENCE project, in which a 17-member ensemble of climate change simulations in response to the SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. The large size of the data set gives the opportunity to detect the changes of climate extreme...

Detectability of anthropogenic changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes

This paper reports on a study of temperature and precipitation indices that may be suitable for the early detection of anthropogenic change in climatic extremes. Anthropogenic changes in daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation over land simulated with two different atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are analyzed. The use of data from two models helps to assess which cha...

Detecting changes in winter precipitation extremes and fluvial flood risk

Efficient Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of Spatial Precipitation Extremes

An efficient Bayesian hierarchical model for spatial extremes on a large domain is proposed. In the data layer a Gaussian elliptical copula having generalized extreme value (GEV) marginals is applied. Spatial dependence in the GEV parameters are captured with a latent spatial regression. Using a composite likelihood approach and a method for incorporating stations with missing data, we are able...